Tuesday 13 March 2012

A simple explanation of why it is rational to believe in a Creator

Religion, Secularism, Democracy, Humanity and Bangladesh
Part 4 [March 03, 2012]: A simple explanation of why it is rational to believe in a Creator

For brevity, let me define as Divinity as the combination of a Creator, a divine code for life on earth, a life after death and a penalty/reward system that leads to infinite misery [hell] for not believing in Divinity and infinite bliss [heaven] for believing in divinity.

It is true that with our current level of human intelligence, the existence of Divinity cannot be proven. Very importantly, however, the non-existence of Divinity [that there is no Divinity] can never be proven.

At the risk of sounding casual, this is like a black swan phenomenon. That there exists a black swan can be proven if and when we see one. But the statement that there exists a black swan can never proven to be false. Granted it is a low probability event given our common knowledge, but it is never zero and it never goes to zero.

When do even low probability events matter? The answer is when the severity is exorbitantly high when it happens. Low probability high severity events are often referred to as tail events or black swan events in the world of finance and risk management. What can be done to manage such extreme risks? The answer is insurance. We do this all the time in our daily life, like insuring our homes and other valuable properties and assets, we go as far as insuring our life too. Why do we insure, it is because the consequences of losing the insured assets can mean grave misery for us, or for our family or business.

Well, guess what, all of these earthly miseries that we insure are miniscule at best compared to the prospect of endless misery in the life hereafter if Divinity exists and we did not do the simplest possible thing in our lifetime, namely, insure our hereafter by just believing now in the existence of divinity.  If we can fully practice one of the divine codes known to us, it is all the better, since as we practice more completely, our insurance deductible goes to zero [no initial penalty time before infinite bliss]. But belief in Divinity seems necessary, like having an insurance policy at all.

In a nut shell, believing we have nothing to lose with the possibility of infinite bliss if Divinity exists.  Not believing, however, there is always a positive probability of infinite misery [black swan or tail loss event] if Divinity exists.


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